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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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