A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
